Back to the future predictions

A few weeks back I did a review of Chuck Klosterman’s latest book, But What If We’re Wrong?: Thinking About the Present As If It Were the Past. Klosterman refereed to The Book of Predictions as an example of just how wrong people can be.

It’s fun to look at some of the entries in Predictions — published in 1980 and brought to you by the people who gave us The People’s Almanac and The Book of Lists. There are even a few baseball references.

Martin Abramson, identified as “a former sports and feature write for the New York Herald Tribune,” suggested that between 1981 and 1992, “Few pitchers will win 20 games per season because the trend toward using relief pitchers and part-game pitchers (my emphasis) will continue.” He also wrote “The Mets will become New York’s favorite baseball team again.”

Abramson was right about the former; the latter is subjective and has changed over the years since he wrote it, although it was certainly true in the mid-80s.

For 1989 he predicted, “Someone will hit 63 home runs over the course of a season in major league baseball, breaking the Maris record of 61.” Off by a few years, but I think anyone could have come up with that one.

Between 1993 and 2030, “Hank Aaron’s lifetime home-run total (755) will be broken. The new record will be 807.” Yes, and no; kind of silly to predict an exact number.

W.C. Heinz, an award winning sportswriter and author, believed that sometime between 19934 and 2030

As television continues to provide instant gratification at the expense of contemplative enjoyment, the leisurely pace of baseball as we have always known it will be reflected in falling ratings and ballpark attendance. The rule changes that follow, in an attempt to inject added excitement, will include the manager’s prerogative of rearranging his team’s batter order as the game progresses player—for example, the team’s leading hitter—may be sent to bat at any time that he is not on base, up to four extra times during nine-inning game but not more than twice in an inning, and for a total of not more than four more times in an extra-inning game.

And you thought the DH was bad. Bear in mind Predictions came out at a time when there were no real sports cable networks.

Lawrence Ritter, author of the classics The Glory of Their Times and The Image of Their Greatness, suggested several records would be broken. Most were pretty accurate, at least when it came to the breaking, if not the predicted figures; others were not (at least not yet):

Roger Maris’ 61 home runs (“someone will hit 70”). Done.
Henry Aaron’s 755 lifetime home runs. (“someone will hit 800”). No.
Lou Brock’s 118 stolen bases in a single season (“someone will steal 130”). Done and spot on.
Brock’s lifetime stolen base record (“someone will reach 1,000”). Done.
Nolan Ryan’s 383 season strikeouts (“someone will strike out 400”). Close but no.
Walter Johnson’s lifetime strikeout (no figure suggested). Done.
Ty Cobb’s 4,191 hits. Ritter accurately predicted Pete Rose would beat the record in 1985.

I’m still waiting for my flying car, though.