First it was PunditTracker, which analyzed the proficiency of baseball experts in their preseason prognostications. Now it’s this Sam Miller article in Baseball Prospectus, which concentrates questions put to general managers over the course of nine years.
Upshot: “[P]redicting baseball might just be impossible, and a team that puts too much faith in its own predictions might be falling into a trap. So don’t feel bad if you’re bad at it. It’s not your fault. It’s baseball’s fault.”