Let’s take a breath, people (Matt Kemp)

April 17, 2012 · 2 comments


Matt Kemp has had a wonderful start: Six home runs in the Dodgers’ first 10 games, as well as 16 RBIs, and a BA/OBP/SLG line of .487/.523/1.026.

But someone has to be a bit more ambitious, or at least less lazy. ESPN projects a player’s end-of-season/162 game stats based purely on what he has done so far. So by that “logic,” Kemp will end the 2012 campaign with 308 hits, 97 home runs, 259 RBIs, and 211 runs scored. And no one will suspect him of being on any PEDs. You see, I take a bit of exception when the pundits point to Kemp as if he should have been the unanimous choice for MVP last year, as if this is a personal issue between Braun, perceived as bad now, or at least questionable, and Kemp, who is the flawless hero.

Just sayin.

Similarly, I think ESPN should lose the new stat of POFF: percentage chance of making the Playoffs for the same reason. Teams will go on hot streaks, cold streaks, or just level off. TSTT (too soon to tell).

Apropos to what I was saying, I just received this “Stat of the Week” on “How Meaningful Are the First Ten Games?” from ACTA, publishers of The Fielding Bible, The Bill James Handbook, and several other titles.

 Performance in First Ten Games (2002 – 2011)

Wins in
First 10
Teams Finished
90+ Wins
Pct of
Pct of
0-3 44 4 9% 5 11%
4 68 14 21% 14 21%
5 78 20 26% 23 29%
6 64 20 31% 19 30%
7-10 46 21 46% 19 41%

It surprised me to see that teams that won between seven and ten of their first ten games made it to the postseason only 41 percent of the time. Even teams lat won three or fewer games made it 11 percent.

Be sociable, share the Bookshelf!
  • http://giantelf.wordpress.com/ giantELF

    I’d love to see theses stats reformatted.  Hard to make sense of them.  Nice blog BTW.  (Go Brewers!)

  • Ron_Kaplan

    Thanks, Robert.

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