Analyzing the Hall of Fame

(A version of this review appeared on Purebaseball.com in Oct. 2005)

The Road to Cooperstown: A Critical History of Baseball?s Hall of Fame Selection Process, by James F. Vail (McFarland, 2001, $29.95)

Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame? Baseball, Cooperstown, and the Politics of Glory, by Bill James (Fireside Books, 1995).

In recent years, the Hall of Fame Board of Advisors announced a major change in voting process. Players who had heretofore met the basic qualifications for consideration but were still found wanting and subsequently were dropped from the ballot would now have new hope because the Veteran’s Committee has been revamped to include all the living members of the Hall.

Extrapolating on James F. Vail’s new examination, The Road to Cooperstown, which was released before the announcement, this could open up a whole new level of cronyism. He already considers the level of the Shrine’s politicking as “more corrupt than Chicago politics.”

Vail points out the failures of the Hall to set forth any “meaningful” standards in deciding which players deserve a plaque in Cooperstown. His cogent, humorous points are well delivered. Even the most knowledgeable fan will probably find uncover new information. For example, in the early years of the Hall, votes were allowed to be cast for active players.

Vail offers some unusual analyses to indicate various biases that play a part in the selection process. He demonstrates, for example, how players from large market teams in New York, California and Chicago stand a better chance of election that their small-market brethren. Players also have been the victims of “prejudice” because of defense position, post-season appearances or the number of awards they garner.

He also downplays much of the criteria used to pick the members of the Hall; many of the qualifications seem arbitrary. Numbers are in flux from generation to generation, opines Vail, and can be subjective. Does a player with 400 home runs deserve more consideration than someone who hit “only” 399? In an era when hitting fifty home runs in a season is no longer Ruthian feat (and 500 for a career are losing their veneer), how will future voters use statistics? Does pitcher who has attained 300 victories by dint of a 20-plus year career deserve more attention that one who wins 220 in a considerably short time-frame? Should longevity play a factor? Will the quest for statistical glory be enough to keep today’s multimillionaire players going?

Vail chides both the writers and veterans committees for their shortsightedness. Oftentimes writers would leave blank spaces on their ballots when one or two votes could mean the difference in either election for some or being dropped off the ballot for others.

Also submitted for consideration is criteria for players from the Negro Leagues, those who built their reputations out of a single skill or event (“The Wambsganss Syndrome,” named for the Cleveland infielder who pulled an unassisted triple play in the 1920 World Series), and the hypocrisy of continuing to keep Pete Rose out of the Hall.

Although Vail makes many interesting points, his statistical presentations can get a bit overwhelming and his zealousness can get a bit hard to take after the first several chapters.

****

There are two sayings that are applicable here: “Lies, damn lies and statistics” and “Even the devil can quote scripture if it suits his purpose.” Vail and James have done thorough jobs of using facts and figures to back up their premises, but someone in the opposing camp could probably be just as mathematically ingenious to “prove” them wrong in defending their own candidates.

Still, The Road to Cooperstown and Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame both serve as eye-openers for anyone who wants to know the inner workings of the Valhalla of baseball.

James spends several detailed chapters on the history of the Hall itself, making his book a more complete overview than Vail’s.Bill James wrote on this subject a decade ago in Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame, which had previously been released as The Politics of Glory. As one would expect from the “father of Sabrmetrics,” he uses statistics to shore up arguments such as why Player A is in Cooperstown when Player B, with almost identical numbers, remains on the outside. He includes his own formulas so the reader can determine on his own which of his favorites might one day be elected.